Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlmeria to win ✓62% · @1.62
Double chanceAlmeria or draw ✓82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.76
Almeria vs Leganes preview and prediction
The match
Almeria host Leganes in the Segunda División on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 15:15 (WAT) at UD Almería Stadium. Almeria are 1st with 29 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Leganes sit 18th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Almeria's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Burgos 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Leganes's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Cadiz 0–4 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Almeria arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished Almeria 2–1 Leganes.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Almeria and 0.6 for Leganes. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Almeria 62%, draw 20%, Leganes 18%.
Safer route: Almeria or draw (82%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Almeria to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Almeria 1–0 Leganes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Almeria62%fair 1.61 · @1.62
Draw20%fair 5.09 · @3.80
Leganes18%fair 5.54 · @4.60
2.19Expected goals
1.55Almeria xG
0.64Leganes xG
51%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–013%
0–011%
1–111%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Almeria 1.6 – 0.6 Leganes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Almeria to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Almeria vs Leganes?
On our numbers Almeria have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Leganes 18%.
How many goals will there be in Almeria vs Leganes?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almeria vs Leganes?
Our predicted score is Almeria 1–0 Leganes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Almeria vs Leganes?
Almeria vs Leganes (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at UD Almería Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
