Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlmeria to win ✓61% · @1.57
Double chanceAlmeria or draw ✓84% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.39
Almeria vs Burgos preview and prediction
The match
Almeria host Burgos in the Segunda División on Saturday 3 October, with kick-off at 15:15 (WAT) at UD Almería Stadium. Almeria are 1st with 29 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Burgos sit 3rd on 24 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Almeria's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Mallorca 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Burgos's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Eldense 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Almeria and 0.7 for Burgos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Almeria 61%, draw 23%, Burgos 16%.
Safer route: Almeria or draw (84%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Almeria to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Almeria 1–0 Burgos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Almeria61%fair 1.64 · @1.57
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.70
Burgos16%fair 6.19 · @5.00
2.36Expected goals
1.66Almeria xG
0.70Burgos xG
47%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Almeria 1.7 – 0.7 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Almeria to win✓
61%
1.64
1.57
Double chance
Almeria or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Almeria / FT Almeria✗
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.39
–
Form
Almeria – last 6
WWWWLL
27 Sep
@ Mallorca
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs Celta de Vigo II
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Cordoba
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Cadiz
3–2
W
29 Aug
@ Sabadell
0–1
L
23 Aug
@ Tenerife
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Burgos – last 6
WWWDDL
27 Sep
vs Eldense
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Las Palmas
2–1
W
11 Sep
vs AD Ceuta FC
3–1
W
6 Sep
@ Oviedo
0–0
D
31 Aug
vs Real Sociedad II
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Sporting Gijon
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Almeria and Burgos.
Our pick is Almeria to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Almeria vs Burgos?
On our numbers Almeria have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Burgos 16%.
How many goals will there be in Almeria vs Burgos?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almeria vs Burgos?
Our predicted score is Almeria 1–0 Burgos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Almeria vs Burgos?
Almeria vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at UD Almería Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
