Segunda División · Spain · Estadio Nuevo Carlos TartiereOviedo vs Burgos prediction & analysis
Oviedo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Oviedo to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Oviedo 1.5 – 0.5 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Oviedo are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 12% for Burgos, and a draw (27%) is a real possibility.
Oviedo have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 per game. Burgos have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.5 for Oviedo, 0.5 for Burgos). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (20%), 2–0 (15%), 0–0 (14%).
Our pick is Oviedo or draw at a 88% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Oviedo to win at 1.91 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Oviedo to win ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Oviedo or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.13 | 1.22 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.68 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Oviedo / FT Oviedo ✗ | 38% | 2.66 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 20% | 4.93 | – |
Form
Oviedo – last 6
| 29 Aug | @ Albacete | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Aug | vs Granada CF | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs Le Havre | 3–2 | W |
| 1 Aug | @ 1. FC Nürnberg | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Jul | vs Ponferradina | 4–0 | W |
Burgos – last 6
| 31 Aug | vs Real Sociedad II | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | @ Sporting Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Cultural Leonesa | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Aug | vs Athletic Club | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Jul | @ Unionistas de Salamanca | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Oviedo and Burgos.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Almeria | 13 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Castellón | 12 | +18 | 27 |
| 3 |  Burgos | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 4 |  Eibar | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 5 |  Granada CF | 12 | +6 | 23 |
| 6 |  Mallorca | 12 | +8 | 22 |
| 7 |  Sporting Gijon | 13 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 |  Girona | 13 | +10 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 13 | +3 | 21 |
| 10 |  Las Palmas | 13 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 |  Cordoba | 13 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 |  Valladolid | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Sabadell | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 13 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 13 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 |  Real Sociedad II | 13 | -7 | 12 |
| 18 |  Leganes | 13 | -12 | 12 |
| 19 |  FC Andorra | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 20 |  Cadiz | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 13 | -11 | 10 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 13 | -20 | 5 |
More Segunda División predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Oviedo vs Burgos?
Our pick is Oviedo or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Oviedo vs Burgos?
On our numbers Oviedo have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Burgos 12%.
How many goals will there be in Oviedo vs Burgos?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Oviedo vs Burgos?
Oviedo vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.