Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCastellón to win ✓58% · @1.81
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓72% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.65
Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón preview and prediction
The match
Celta de Vigo II host Castellón in the Segunda División on Monday 31 August, with kick-off at 20:30 (WAT) at Municipal de Barreiro. Celta de Vigo II are 16th with 13 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Castellón sit 2nd on 27 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Celta de Vigo II's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat FC Andorra 4–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Castellón's last 5: DWLDL Most recently they drew with Sabadell 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Celta de Vigo II arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.8 for Celta de Vigo II and 1.5 for Castellón. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Celta de Vigo II 22%, draw 20%, Castellón 58%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 – 52% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.45, above our fair price of 1.38, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Celta de Vigo II 0–1 Castellón. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Celta de Vigo II22%fair 4.48 · @4.10
Draw20%fair 5.12 · @3.70
Castellón58%fair 1.72 · @1.81
2.32Expected goals
0.79Celta de Vigo II xG
1.53Castellón xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–112%
0–212%
0–010%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Celta de Vigo II 0.8 – 1.5 Castellón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellón to win✓
58%
1.72
1.81 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellón / FT Castellón✓
33%
3.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.65
–
Form
Celta de Vigo II – last 6
WDWWDD
24 Aug
vs FC Andorra
4–2
W
15 Aug
@ Cadiz
0–0
D
1 Aug
@ Vizela
1–0
W
20 Jun
vs Ponferradina
4–1
W
13 Jun
@ Ponferradina
0–0
D
7 Jun
vs Europa Fc
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Castellón – last 6
DWLDLD
23 Aug
vs Sabadell
0–0
D
14 Aug
@ Real Sociedad II
1–0
W
8 Aug
vs Levante
1–3
L
7 Aug
@ Hércules
0–0
D
31 Jul
@ Alaves
0–3
L
29 Jul
@ Girona
3–3
D
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celta de Vigo II and Castellón.
What is the prediction for Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón?
On our numbers Celta de Vigo II have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Castellón 58%.
How many goals will there be in Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón?
Our predicted score is Celta de Vigo II 0–1 Castellón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón?
Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 31 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Barreiro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
