III Liga Group 1 · PolandWarta Sieradz vs Pelikan Łowicz prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
Value bet: Pelikan Łowicz to win @ 2.88 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Warta Sieradz 1.6 – 1.5 Pelikan Łowicz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Warta Sieradz and Pelikan Łowicz on our numbers – 41% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 21% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Warta Sieradz have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 per game. Pelikan Łowicz have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 3.1 goals (1.6 for Warta Sieradz, 1.5 for Pelikan Łowicz). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 59% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.60 is close to our fair price of 1.68. For a bigger price, Pelikan Łowicz to win at 2.88 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Warta Sieradz to win ✗ | 41% | 2.45 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.80 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.23 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.68 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.60 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 39% | 2.57 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Warta Sieradz / FT Warta Sieradz ✗ | 23% | 4.27 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.69 | – |
Form
Warta Sieradz – last 6
| 21 Oct | @ Widzew II | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Wisła Płock II | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Wigry Suwałki | 1–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Olimpia Zambrów | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 2–1 | W |
Pelikan Łowicz – last 6
| 17 Oct | vs Wigry Suwałki | 1–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Widzew II | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ Olimpia Zambrów | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Olimpia Elbląg | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Warta Sieradz and Pelikan Łowicz.
III Liga Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Weszlo | 16 | +14 | 35 |
| 2 |  Wigry Suwałki | 16 | +16 | 34 |
| 3 |  Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 16 | +10 | 30 |
| 4 |  Swit | 16 | +9 | 29 |
| 5 |  Warta Sieradz | 16 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 |  Ząbkovia Ząbki | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 7 |  Wisła Płock II | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 8 |  Pelikan Łowicz | 16 | +2 | 24 |
| 9 |  Olimpia Zambrów | 16 | +1 | 24 |
| 10 |  ŁKS Łódź II | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 11 |  Olimpia Elbląg | 16 | -3 | 21 |
| 12 |  Jagiellonia II | 16 | -1 | 20 |
| 13 |  Widzew II | 16 | +2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 16 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 16 | -8 | 17 |
| 16 |  Mławianka Mława | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 17 |  Troszyn | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 18 |  Łomża | 16 | -20 | 4 |
More III Liga Group 1 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Warta Sieradz vs Pelikan Łowicz?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Warta Sieradz vs Pelikan Łowicz?
On our numbers Warta Sieradz have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Pelikan Łowicz 38%.
How many goals will there be in Warta Sieradz vs Pelikan Łowicz?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Warta Sieradz vs Pelikan Łowicz?
Warta Sieradz vs Pelikan Łowicz (III Liga Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.