III Liga Group 1 · PolandMazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 2.3 – 1.4 Lechia T. Mazowiecki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki are clear favourites at home with a 60% chance of winning, against 24% for Lechia T. Mazowiecki.
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.3 per game. Lechia T. Mazowiecki have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.7 goals (2.3 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, 1.4 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 3–1 (7%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.48.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki to win ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.65 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Half-time result | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki ahead at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki / FT Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki ✓ | 38% | 2.65 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.81 | – |
Form
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ Weszlo | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Pelikan Łowicz | 1–4 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ Warta Sieradz | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Wigry Suwałki | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Wisła Płock II | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Sep | @ Widzew II | 3–2 | W |
Lechia T. Mazowiecki – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Widzew II | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | @ Olimpia Zambrów | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Olimpia Elbląg | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs Swit | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | @ Ząbkovia Ząbki | 2–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki and Lechia T. Mazowiecki.
III Liga Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Weszlo | 16 | +14 | 35 |
| 2 |  Wigry Suwałki | 16 | +16 | 34 |
| 3 |  Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 16 | +10 | 30 |
| 4 |  Swit | 16 | +9 | 29 |
| 5 |  Warta Sieradz | 16 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 |  Ząbkovia Ząbki | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 7 |  Wisła Płock II | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 8 |  Pelikan Łowicz | 16 | +2 | 24 |
| 9 |  Olimpia Zambrów | 16 | +1 | 24 |
| 10 |  ŁKS Łódź II | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 11 |  Olimpia Elbląg | 16 | -3 | 21 |
| 12 |  Jagiellonia II | 16 | -1 | 20 |
| 13 |  Widzew II | 16 | +2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 16 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 16 | -8 | 17 |
| 16 |  Mławianka Mława | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 17 |  Troszyn | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 18 |  Łomża | 16 | -20 | 4 |
More III Liga Group 1 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?
On our numbers Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Lechia T. Mazowiecki 24%.
How many goals will there be in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki (III Liga Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.