Value bet: Siarka Tarnobrzeg to win @ 2.62 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSiarka Tarnobrzeg to win ✗41% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.05
Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg preview and prediction
The match
The III Liga Group 4 sees Star Starachowice take on Siarka Tarnobrzeg on Saturday 26 September, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT). Star Starachowice are 9th with 23 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Siarka Tarnobrzeg sit 10th on 21 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Star Starachowice's last 5: DLDLD Most recently they drew with KS Wieczysta Krakow II 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Siarka Tarnobrzeg's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Siarka Tarnobrzeg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Star Starachowice and 1.3 for Siarka Tarnobrzeg. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 47%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Star Starachowice 38%, draw 21%, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 41%.
Value angle: Siarka Tarnobrzeg to win at 2.62 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 51% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Star Starachowice 1–2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Star Starachowice38%fair 2.63 · @2.20
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.60
Siarka Tarnobrzeg41%fair 2.47 · @2.62
2.58Expected goals
1.27Star Starachowice xG
1.32Siarka Tarnobrzeg xG
47%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Star Starachowice 1.3 – 1.3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Siarka Tarnobrzeg to win✗
41%
2.47
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Siarka Tarnobrzeg / FT Siarka Tarnobrzeg✗
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.05
–
Form
Star Starachowice – last 6
DLDLDW
19 Sep
@ KS Wieczysta Krakow II
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Wisłoka Dębica
2–3
L
4 Sep
@ Sokół Kolb.
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Jarosław
0–3
L
22 Aug
vs Busko-Zdroj
1–1
D
19 Aug
vs Czarni Połaniec
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Siarka Tarnobrzeg – last 6
WDWWWL
19 Sep
vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Chełmianka Chełm
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ KS Wieczysta Krakow II
2–0
W
1 Sep
vs Zaglebie Lubin
3–2
W
29 Aug
vs Wisłoka Dębica
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Sokół Kolb.
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Star Starachowice and Siarka Tarnobrzeg.
What is the prediction for Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
On our numbers Star Starachowice have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Siarka Tarnobrzeg 41%.
How many goals will there be in Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
Our predicted score is Star Starachowice 1–2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg (III Liga Group 4) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
