Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
BFC Daugavpils or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 4.00 – our chance 53% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +113%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓53% · @4.00
Double chanceBFC Daugavpils or draw ✓81% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓71% · @1.62
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–2 ✗5% · fair 19.99
Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils preview and prediction
The match
The Cup sees Riga Mariners take on BFC Daugavpils on Saturday 11 July, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Riga Mariners's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat JDFS Alberts 4–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
BFC Daugavpils's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat FK Liepaja 3–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Riga Mariners arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 6.0 goals: 2.9 for Riga Mariners and 3.1 for BFC Daugavpils. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 94% likely and both teams score in 71% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Riga Mariners 19%, draw 53%, BFC Daugavpils 27%.
Safer route: BFC Daugavpils or draw (81%) at 1.36.
Both teams to score: yes (71%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Draw at 4.00 – 53% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was BFC Daugavpils or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.24, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Riga Mariners 2–3 BFC Daugavpils. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Riga Mariners19%fair 5.14 · @2.75
Draw53%fair 1.88 · @4.00
BFC Daugavpils27%fair 3.67 · @2.00
6.00Expected goals
2.88Riga Mariners xG
3.12BFC Daugavpils xG
71%Both score
94%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–35%
2–25%
3–35%
3–25%
2–44%
3–44%
From our goals model: Riga Mariners 2.9 – 3.1 BFC Daugavpils expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
53%
1.88
4.00 ▲
Double chance
BFC Daugavpils or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
71%
1.42
1.62 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
BFC Daugavpils ahead at half-time✗
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT BFC Daugavpils / FT BFC Daugavpils✗
29%
3.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–2✗
5%
19.99
–
Form
Riga Mariners – last 6
WWWWDD
4 Jul
@ JDFS Alberts
4–0
W
27 Jun
vs Mārupe
2–0
W
20 Jun
vs JDFS Alberts
1–0
W
14 Jun
@ Skanste
2–0
W
2 May
@ Rēzekne FA
2–2
D
19 Apr
vs Riga FC II
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
BFC Daugavpils – last 6
WLDWDD
4 Jul
vs FK Liepaja
3–1
W
30 Jun
@ Rīgas FS
1–3
L
25 Jun
vs Riga
0–0
D
20 Jun
vs Grobiņa
1–0
W
16 Jun
vs Super Nova
0–0
D
12 Jun
@ Tukums
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Riga Mariners and BFC Daugavpils.
What is the prediction for Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our pick is BFC Daugavpils or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
On our numbers Riga Mariners have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 53% and BFC Daugavpils 27%.
How many goals will there be in Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
We expect about 6.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 94% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our predicted score is Riga Mariners 2–3 BFC Daugavpils, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 6.0 goals in total.
When is Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils (Cup) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cup · Latvia
Auda1
FK Liepaja0
Tukums1
Super Nova2