Portugal vs Croatia prediction & analysis
Portugal to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Portugal 2.0 – 0.8 Croatia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Portugal are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 14% for Croatia.
Portugal have taken 14 points from their last 6 matches (4W 2D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.5 per game. Croatia have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded. Portugal come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (2.0 for Portugal, 0.8 for Croatia). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Portugal to win at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.73 is better than our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Portugal to win ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Double chance | Portugal or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.94 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Portugal ahead at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Portugal / FT Portugal ✗ | 42% | 2.37 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.73 | – |
Form
Portugal – last 6
| 28 Jun | @ Colombia | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Jun | vs Uzbekistan | 5–0 | W |
| 17 Jun | vs Congo DR | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Jun | vs Nigeria | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Jun | vs Chile | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Apr | @ USA | 2–0 | W |
Croatia – last 6
| 27 Jun | vs Ghana | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Jun | @ Panama | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Jun | @ England | 2–4 | L |
| 7 Jun | vs Slovenia | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Jun | vs Belgium | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Apr | @ Brazil | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portugal and Croatia.
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Cape Verde Islands1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Portugal vs Croatia?
Our pick is Portugal to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Portugal vs Croatia?
On our numbers Portugal have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Croatia 14%.
How many goals will there be in Portugal vs Croatia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Portugal vs Croatia?
Portugal vs Croatia (World Cup) kicks off on Friday 3 July 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at BMO Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.