Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBelgium to win ✗46% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.85
Belgium vs Senegal preview and prediction
The match
Belgium host Senegal in the World Cup on Wednesday 1 July, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Lumen Field.
Form guide
Belgium's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat New Zealand 5–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Senegal's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Iraq 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Belgium arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.7 for Belgium and 1.4 for Senegal. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Belgium 46%, draw 22%, Senegal 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.05 – 53% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Belgium 1–1 Senegal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Belgium46%fair 2.15 · @2.20
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.20
Senegal31%fair 3.19 · @3.25
3.09Expected goals
1.72Belgium xG
1.37Senegal xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Belgium 1.7 – 1.4 Senegal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Belgium to win✗
46%
2.15
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.77 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
2.05 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Belgium / FT Belgium✗
28%
3.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.85
–
Form
Belgium – last 6
WDDWWD
27 Jun
@ New Zealand
5–1
W
21 Jun
vs Iran
0–0
D
15 Jun
vs Egypt
1–1
D
6 Jun
vs Tunisia
5–0
W
2 Jun
@ Croatia
2–0
W
1 Apr
@ Mexico
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Senegal – last 6
WLLDLW
26 Jun
vs Iraq
5–0
W
23 Jun
@ Norway
2–3
L
16 Jun
@ France
1–3
L
10 Jun
@ Saudi Arabia
0–0
D
31 May
@ USA
2–3
L
31 Mar
vs Gambia
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Belgium and Senegal.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Belgium vs Senegal?
On our numbers Belgium have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Senegal 31%.
How many goals will there be in Belgium vs Senegal?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Belgium vs Senegal?
Our predicted score is Belgium 1–1 Senegal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Belgium vs Senegal?
Belgium vs Senegal (World Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 1 July 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Lumen Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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