Value bet: Novosibirsk to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovosibirsk to win ✓58% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.24
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.69
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.84
Kaluga vs Novosibirsk preview and prediction
The match
Novosibirsk travel to Orbita stadium in the Second League A Fall Season Gold on Sunday 26 July (12:00 WAT) to face Kaluga. Kaluga are 10th with 11 points from 17 games (in the bottom three), while Novosibirsk sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Kaluga's last 5: DWLDW Most recently they drew with FK Sokol Saratov 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Novosibirsk's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Dinamo Vladivostok 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 7 June 2026, finished Novosibirsk 1–0 Kaluga. Across their last 2 meetings Kaluga have won 0, Novosibirsk 2, with 0 draws and 2.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.9 for Kaluga and 1.7 for Novosibirsk. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Novosibirsk to win at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: Kaluga 1–1 Novosibirsk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kaluga21%fair 4.66 · @3.32
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.34
Novosibirsk58%fair 1.71 · @1.95
2.59Expected goals
0.89Kaluga xG
1.70Novosibirsk xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Kaluga 0.9 – 1.7 Novosibirsk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Kaluga vs Novosibirsk?
On our numbers Kaluga have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Novosibirsk 58%.
How many goals will there be in Kaluga vs Novosibirsk?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kaluga vs Novosibirsk?
Our predicted score is Kaluga 1–1 Novosibirsk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Kaluga vs Novosibirsk?
Kaluga vs Novosibirsk (Second League A Fall Season Gold) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Orbita stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
