Championship · Northern-IrelandArds vs Strabane Athletic prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ards 2.1 – 0.9 Strabane Athletic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ards are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 15% for Strabane Athletic.
Ards have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. Strabane Athletic have 2 points from their last 6 (0W 2D 4L), averaging 1.0 scored and 2.8 conceded. Ards come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.1 goals (2.1 for Ards, 0.9 for Strabane Athletic). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.25.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ards to win ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.48 |
| Double chance | Ards or draw ✗ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.50 |
| Half-time result | Ards ahead at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ards / FT Ards ✗ | 42% | 2.39 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.56 | – |
Form
Ards – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ Moyola Park | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Rathfriland | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sep | @ Annagh United | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Queen's University | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Loughgall | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ Warrenpoint Town | 3–1 | W |
Strabane Athletic – last 6
| 18 Sep | @ Dundela | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | vs Newry City AFC | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | @ Queen's University | 0–6 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Newington Youth | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs H&W Welders | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ Glenavon FC | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ards and Strabane Athletic.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Annagh United | 15 | +21 | 34 |
| 2 |  Glenavon FC | 14 | +20 | 30 |
| 3 |  Newington Youth | 14 | +13 | 29 |
| 4 |  Queen's University | 15 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 |  Newry City AFC | 15 | -1 | 23 |
| 6 |  Institute | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 7 |  Ballinamallard United | 15 | 0 | 21 |
| 8 |  Loughgall | 15 | -5 | 20 |
| 9 |  H&W Welders | 14 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 |  Warrenpoint Town | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Ards | 15 | -4 | 17 |
| 12 |  Rathfriland | 14 | -10 | 16 |
| 13 |  Moyola Park | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 14 |  Dundela | 13 | -8 | 11 |
| 15 |  Strabane Athletic | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 16 |  Armagh City | 15 | -16 | 9 |
More Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ards vs Strabane Athletic?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Ards vs Strabane Athletic?
On our numbers Ards have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Strabane Athletic 15%.
How many goals will there be in Ards vs Strabane Athletic?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is Ards vs Strabane Athletic?
Ards vs Strabane Athletic (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.