Coppa Italia · Italy · Stadio Renzo Barbera
Palermo vs Lecce prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Palermo to win @ 2.44 – our chance 51% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Palermo 1.6 – 1.1 Lecce expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Palermo hold the edge on home soil with a 51% chance of winning, against 28% for Lecce.
Palermo have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Lecce have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. Lecce come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.6 for Palermo, 1.1 for Lecce). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.37. For a bigger price, Palermo to win at 2.44 is our value angle (51% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Palermo to win ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | 2.44 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.77 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.94 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.35 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Palermo / FT Palermo ✓ | 29% | 3.41 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.74 | – |
Form
Palermo – last 6
| 11 Aug | @ Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Aug | @ Melbourne City | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Jul | vs Iraklis 1908 | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Jul | vs 1. FC Nürnberg | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Jul | vs Paradiso | 7–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | @ FC Ingolstadt 04 | 0–1 | L |
Lecce – last 6
| 9 Aug | vs SS Monopoli | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | vs Istra 1961 | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Jul | vs FC Politehnica Timisoara | 0–1 | L |
| 24 May | vs Genoa | 1–0 | W |
| 17 May | @ Sassuolo | 3–2 | W |
| 1 May | @ Pisa | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palermo and Lecce.
More Coppa Italia predictions
Pisa1
Empoli1
Sassuolo3
Cesena0
Cremonese2
Sampdoria0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Palermo vs Lecce?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Palermo vs Lecce?
On our numbers Palermo have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lecce 28%.
How many goals will there be in Palermo vs Lecce?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Palermo vs Lecce?
Palermo vs Lecce (Coppa Italia) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.