Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Stevenage to win @ 3.10 – our chance 40% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultStevenage to win ✗40% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.80
Burton Albion vs Stevenage preview and prediction
The match
Stevenage travel to Pirelli Stadium in the League One on Saturday 15 August (15:00 WAT) to face Burton Albion. Burton Albion are 15th with 17 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Stevenage sit 16th on 16 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Burton Albion's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Blackburn 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Stevenage's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Wycombe 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Stevenage arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Burton Albion and 1.2 for Stevenage. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Stevenage to win at 3.10 – 40% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Burton Albion 1–1 Stevenage. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Burton Albion35%fair 2.85 · @2.38
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.10
Stevenage40%fair 2.52 · @3.10
2.26Expected goals
1.08Burton Albion xG
1.17Stevenage xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Burton Albion 1.1 – 1.2 Stevenage expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Stevenage to win✗
40%
2.52
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Stevenage / FT Stevenage✗
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.80
–
Form
Burton Albion – last 6
LWDLLD
8 Aug
vs Blackburn
1–2
L
1 Aug
vs Derby
1–0
W
28 Jul
@ Solihull Moors
1–1
D
22 Jul
vs Birmingham
0–1
L
18 Jul
vs Leicester
0–3
L
11 Jul
@ Alfreton Town
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Stevenage – last 6
WWWLDL
7 Aug
@ Wycombe
2–1
W
1 Aug
vs Colchester
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Millwall
1–0
W
22 Jul
vs West Ham
0–5
L
18 Jul
@ FC Andorra
0–0
D
13 May
@ Stockport County
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burton Albion and Stevenage.
What is the prediction for Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
On our numbers Burton Albion have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Stevenage 40%.
How many goals will there be in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our predicted score is Burton Albion 1–1 Stevenage, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Burton Albion vs Stevenage (League One) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Pirelli Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
