Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.79 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpartak Moscow to win ✓72% · @1.28
Double chanceSpartak Moscow or draw ✓90% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.79
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.94
Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva preview and prediction
The match
Spartak Moscow host Rodina Moskva in the Cup on Wednesday 2 September, with kick-off at 18:45 (WAT) at Lukoil Arena.
Form guide
Spartak Moscow's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with FC Orenburg 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Rodina Moskva's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Baltika 0–3 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Spartak Moscow arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 25 July 2026, finished Spartak Moscow 3–0 Rodina Moskva.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 2.9 for Spartak Moscow and 1.1 for Rodina Moskva. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Spartak Moscow 72%, draw 18%, Rodina Moskva 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.79.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.79 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.41. Predicted score: Spartak Moscow 2–1 Rodina Moskva. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spartak Moscow72%fair 1.39 · @1.28
Draw18%fair 5.45 · @6.15
Rodina Moskva10%fair 10.25 · @10.25
4.06Expected goals
2.92Spartak Moscow xG
1.13Rodina Moskva xG
62%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
3–18%
2–07%
3–07%
4–16%
1–16%
From our goals model: Spartak Moscow 2.9 – 1.1 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.41.
Who will win Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
On our numbers Spartak Moscow have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Rodina Moskva 10%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
Our predicted score is Spartak Moscow 2–1 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva (Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Lukoil Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
FC Orenburg1
Rubin1
Zenit3
Dinamo Makhachkala0
Baltika0
Krylia Sovetov0