Value bet: Rodina Moskva to win @ 3.42 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRubin to win ✗45% · @2.06
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.64
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 11.06
Rodina Moskva vs Rubin preview and prediction
The match
The Cup sees Rodina Moskva take on Rubin on Tuesday 4 August, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Arena Khimki.
Form guide
Rodina Moskva's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to FC Rostov 2–4 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Rubin's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Akron 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Rubin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Rodina Moskva and 1.5 for Rubin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Rodina Moskva 36%, draw 19%, Rubin 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.64.
Value angle: Rodina Moskva to win at 3.42 – 36% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Rodina Moskva 1–1 Rubin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rodina Moskva36%fair 2.82 · @3.42
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @3.84
Rubin45%fair 2.22 · @2.06
2.82Expected goals
1.30Rodina Moskva xG
1.52Rubin xG
63%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Rodina Moskva 1.3 – 1.5 Rubin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rubin to win✗
45%
2.22
2.06
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.59
1.64
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
1.79
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rubin / FT Rubin✗
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
11.06
–
Form
Rodina Moskva – last 6
LLLDWL
31 Jul
vs FC Rostov
2–4
L
25 Jul
@ Spartak Moscow
0–3
L
2 Jul
vs Akron
0–5
L
27 Jun
@ Lokomotiv
0–0
D
8 May
vs Chelyabinsk
2–0
W
22 Apr
@ Rotor Volgograd
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Rubin – last 6
WLWWDL
1 Aug
@ Akron
2–1
W
26 Jul
vs FC Krasnodar
1–3
L
18 Jul
@ Lokomotiv
3–1
W
11 Jul
vs Krylia Sovetov
2–0
W
8 Jul
@ Spartak Moscow
0–0
D
3 Jul
vs FC Orenburg
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rodina Moskva and Rubin.
What is the prediction for Rodina Moskva vs Rubin?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Rodina Moskva vs Rubin?
On our numbers Rodina Moskva have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Rubin 45%.
How many goals will there be in Rodina Moskva vs Rubin?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rodina Moskva vs Rubin?
Our predicted score is Rodina Moskva 1–1 Rubin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Rodina Moskva vs Rubin?
Rodina Moskva vs Rubin (Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Khimki.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Akron0
FC Rostov4
Dinamo Makhachkala1
Krylia Sovetov2
Lokomotiv1
CSKA Moscow1