Championship · England · Fratton Park

Portsmouth

WDWDW

1–2

Stoke City

WWDWL

Portsmouth vs Stoke City prediction & analysis

76%

Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating

1.25Odds

Value bet: Stoke City to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultPortsmouth to win ✗42% · @2.20

Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.91

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.27

Win chances

Portsmouth42%fair 2.38 · @2.20

Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.30

Stoke City34%fair 2.94 · @3.30

2.52Expected goals

1.34Portsmouth xG

1.18Stoke City xG

56%Both score

45%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–113%

1–011%

0–19%

2–19%

0–08%

1–27%

From our goals model: Portsmouth 1.3 – 1.2 Stoke City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Portsmouth hold the edge on home soil with a 42% chance of winning, against 34% for Stoke City.

Portsmouth have taken 14 points from their last 6 matches (4W 2D 0L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 per game. Stoke City have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.

We expect around 2.5 goals (1.3 for Portsmouth, 1.2 for Stoke City). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%).

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.32. For a bigger price, Stoke City to win at 3.30 is our value angle (34% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Portsmouth to win ✗	42%	2.38	2.20
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	76%	1.32	1.33
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	56%	1.80	1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	70%	1.43	1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	55%	1.81	1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	76%	1.32	1.25
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	44%	2.28	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Portsmouth / FT Portsmouth ✗	24%	4.25	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	11%	9.27	–

Form

Portsmouth – last 6

WDWDWW

3 Nov	vs Swansea	3–1	W
31 Oct	@ Burnley	0–0	D
24 Oct	vs Millwall	2–1	W
20 Oct	@ Wolves	1–1	D
17 Oct	@ Norwich	1–0	W
14 Oct	vs Sheffield Utd	3–2	W

1.7Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Stoke City – last 6

WWDWLW

3 Nov	@ Blackburn	2–1	W
31 Oct	vs Preston	2–0	W
24 Oct	vs Bristol City	0–0	D
17 Oct	@ Derby	1–0	W
13 Oct	vs Middlesbrough	2–3	L
10 Oct	@ Bolton	2–1	W

1.5Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Portsmouth and Stoke City.

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

More Championship predictions

League hub →

Bristol City0

Norwich5 352442 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✓ FT

Wrexham1

Wolves1 312248 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.28 ✓ FT

Birmingham2

Swansea1 612513 1XBirmingham or draw 87%@1.22 ✓ FT

Blackburn2

West Ham1 172261 GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.62 ✓ FT

Cardiff5

Burnley4 651422 1Cardiff to win 65%@1.95 ✓ FT

Charlton2

Sheffield Utd1 282250 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✓ FT

Preston1

Southampton0 112168 2Southampton to win 68%@1.62 ✗ FT

QPR2

Lincoln1 612514 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Portsmouth vs Stoke City?

On our numbers Portsmouth have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Stoke City 34%.

How many goals will there be in Portsmouth vs Stoke City?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

When is Portsmouth vs Stoke City?

Portsmouth vs Stoke City (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Fratton Park.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.