Championship · England

Birmingham

WWLWW

2–1

Swansea

LWLLW

Birmingham vs Swansea prediction & analysis

87%

Footrivo pick

Birmingham or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

10/10Rating

1.22Odds

Value bet: Birmingham to win @ 1.83 – our chance 61% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultBirmingham to win ✓61% · @1.83

Double chanceBirmingham or draw ✓87% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.73

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.12

Win chances

Birmingham61%fair 1.64 · @1.83

Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.60

Swansea13%fair 7.42 · @4.20

2.75Expected goals

1.92Birmingham xG

0.83Swansea xG

58%Both score

52%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–012%

2–012%

1–110%

2–110%

3–08%

0–06%

From our goals model: Birmingham 1.9 – 0.8 Swansea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Birmingham are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 13% for Swansea.

Birmingham have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.3 per game. Swansea have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded. Birmingham come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.7 goals (1.9 for Birmingham, 0.8 for Swansea). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%).

In their last 1 meeting, Birmingham have won 1, Swansea have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Birmingham or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Birmingham to win at 1.83 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Birmingham to win ✓	61%	1.64	1.83 ▲
Double chance	Birmingham or draw ✓	87%	1.16	1.22 ▲
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	58%	1.72	1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	76%	1.31	1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	52%	1.92	1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	70%	1.42	1.36
Half-time result	Birmingham ahead at half-time ✓	45%	2.22	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham ✓	40%	2.49	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	12%	8.12	–

Form

Birmingham – last 6

WWLWWW

3 Nov	vs Millwall	3–0	W
31 Oct	@ Lincoln	3–1	W
24 Oct	@ Cardiff	0–1	L
17 Oct	vs QPR	3–0	W
13 Oct	vs Preston	4–0	W
10 Oct	@ West Brom	1–0	W

2.3Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

17%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Swansea – last 6

LWLLWW

3 Nov	@ Portsmouth	1–3	L
31 Oct	vs Blackburn	4–0	W
24 Oct	@ QPR	0–5	L
17 Oct	vs West Ham	0–1	L
13 Oct	@ Millwall	1–0	W
10 Oct	vs Norwich	2–1	W

1.3Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

33%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Head to head

8 Aug 2026

Swansea v Birmingham

0–1

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

More Championship predictions

League hub →

Bristol City0

Norwich5 352442 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✓ FT

Portsmouth1

Stoke City2 422434 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓ FT

Wrexham1

Wolves1 312248 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.28 ✓ FT

Blackburn2

West Ham1 172261 GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.62 ✓ FT

Cardiff5

Burnley4 651422 1Cardiff to win 65%@1.95 ✓ FT

Charlton2

Sheffield Utd1 282250 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✓ FT

Preston1

Southampton0 112168 2Southampton to win 68%@1.62 ✗ FT

QPR2

Lincoln1 612514 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Swansea?

Our pick is Birmingham or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Birmingham vs Swansea?

On our numbers Birmingham have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Swansea 13%.

How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs Swansea?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

When is Birmingham vs Swansea?

Birmingham vs Swansea (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.