Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultQPR to win ✓63% · @1.65
Double chanceQPR or draw ✓88% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 6.02
QPR vs Derby preview and prediction
The match
Derby travel to Loftus Road in the Championship on Wednesday 14 October (19:45 WAT) to face QPR. QPR are 8th with 24 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Derby sit 23rd on 10 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
QPR's last 5: DDDDL Most recently they drew with West Ham 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Derby's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Wrexham 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for QPR and 0.6 for Derby. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: QPR 63%, draw 25%, Derby 12%.
Safer route: QPR or draw (88%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was QPR to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.65, above our fair price of 1.59, so there is value in it. Predicted score: QPR 1–0 Derby. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
QPR63%fair 1.59 · @1.65
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.80
Derby12%fair 8.13 · @4.80
2.33Expected goals
1.71QPR xG
0.62Derby xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: QPR 1.7 – 0.6 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
QPR to win✓
63%
1.59
1.65
Double chance
QPR or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
QPR ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT QPR / FT QPR✓
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
6.02
–
Form
QPR – last 6
DDDDLW
9 Oct
@ West Ham
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Preston
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ West Brom
1–1
D
9 Sep
@ Charlton
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Middlesbrough
0–1
L
2 Sep
vs Cardiff
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Derby – last 6
DDLLLW
10 Oct
vs Wrexham
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Burnley
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Birmingham
1–2
L
9 Sep
vs West Brom
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ West Ham
0–3
L
1 Sep
@ Portsmouth
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between QPR and Derby.
Our pick is QPR to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win QPR vs Derby?
On our numbers QPR have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Derby 12%.
How many goals will there be in QPR vs Derby?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for QPR vs Derby?
Our predicted score is QPR 1–0 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is QPR vs Derby?
QPR vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Loftus Road.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
