Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: FK Neftekhimik to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Neftekhimik to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceFK Neftekhimik or draw ✗88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.47
FK Neftekhimik vs Veles preview and prediction
The match
FK Neftekhimik host Veles in the First League on Saturday 11 July, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Neftekhimik Stadium. FK Neftekhimik are 17th with 13 points from 17 games (in the bottom three), while Veles sit 5th on 31 points (in the top half). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FK Neftekhimik's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat KAMAZ 3–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Veles's last 5: DLWDL Most recently they drew with Ska-khabarovsk 2–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for FK Neftekhimik and 0.7 for Veles. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FK Neftekhimik 61%, draw 26%, Veles 12%.
Safer route: FK Neftekhimik or draw (88%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.90.
Value angle: FK Neftekhimik to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FK Neftekhimik or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FK Neftekhimik 1–0 Veles. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FK Neftekhimik61%fair 1.63 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.24
Veles12%fair 8.21 · @3.88
2.43Expected goals
1.75FK Neftekhimik xG
0.68Veles xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: FK Neftekhimik 1.8 – 0.7 Veles expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FK Neftekhimik to win✗
61%
1.63
1.95 ▲
Double chance
FK Neftekhimik or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.21
Half-time result
FK Neftekhimik ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FK Neftekhimik / FT FK Neftekhimik✗
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.47
–
Form
FK Neftekhimik – last 6
WDWDLL
1 Jul
@ KAMAZ
3–2
W
28 Jun
@ Krylia Sovetov
1–1
D
25 Jun
@ FC Orenburg
1–0
W
18 Jun
vs KAMAZ
0–0
D
16 May
@ Ska-khabarovsk
0–2
L
2 May
@ Chelyabinsk
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Veles – last 6
DLWDLW
4 Jul
@ Ska-khabarovsk
2–2
D
21 Jun
@ Novosibirsk
1–2
L
17 Jun
vs Novosibirsk
4–1
W
13 Jun
vs Leningradets
1–1
D
7 Jun
@ Mashuk-KMV
0–1
L
31 May
vs Torpedo Miass
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FK Neftekhimik and Veles.
What is the prediction for FK Neftekhimik vs Veles?
Our pick is FK Neftekhimik or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win FK Neftekhimik vs Veles?
On our numbers FK Neftekhimik have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Veles 12%.
How many goals will there be in FK Neftekhimik vs Veles?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FK Neftekhimik vs Veles?
Our predicted score is FK Neftekhimik 1–0 Veles, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is FK Neftekhimik vs Veles?
FK Neftekhimik vs Veles (First League) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Neftekhimik Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
