Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 – our chance 51% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNetherlands to win ✗43% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.16
Netherlands vs Morocco preview and prediction
The match
Netherlands host Morocco in the World Cup on Tuesday 30 June, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio BBVA.
Form guide
Netherlands's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Tunisia 3–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Morocco's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Haiti 4–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Morocco arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.7 for Netherlands and 1.4 for Morocco. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 51% and both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.20 – 51% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.40, above our fair price of 1.34, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Netherlands 1–1 Morocco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Netherlands43%fair 2.31 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.05
Morocco33%fair 3.01 · @3.25
3.11Expected goals
1.67Netherlands xG
1.44Morocco xG
54%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–26%
0–16%
From our goals model: Netherlands 1.7 – 1.4 Morocco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Netherlands to win✗
43%
2.31
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.94
2.20 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Netherlands / FT Netherlands✗
26%
3.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.16
–
Form
Netherlands – last 6
WWDWLD
26 Jun
@ Tunisia
3–1
W
20 Jun
vs Sweden
5–1
W
14 Jun
vs Japan
2–2
D
8 Jun
vs Uzbekistan
2–1
W
3 Jun
vs Algeria
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Ecuador
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Morocco – last 6
WWDDWW
24 Jun
vs Haiti
4–2
W
19 Jun
@ Scotland
1–0
W
13 Jun
@ Brazil
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Norway
1–1
D
2 Jun
vs Madagascar
4–0
W
31 Mar
vs Paraguay
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Netherlands and Morocco.
What is the prediction for Netherlands vs Morocco?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Netherlands vs Morocco?
On our numbers Netherlands have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Morocco 33%.
How many goals will there be in Netherlands vs Morocco?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Morocco?
Our predicted score is Netherlands 1–1 Morocco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Netherlands vs Morocco?
Netherlands vs Morocco (World Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 30 June 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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