Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
Red Bull Salzburg or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Red Bull Salzburg to win @ 1.62 – our chance 65% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRed Bull Salzburg to win ✓65% · @1.62
Double chanceRed Bull Salzburg or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗13% · fair 7.80
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz preview and prediction
The match
The Bundesliga sees Red Bull Salzburg take on Sturm Graz on Sunday 20 September, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Red Bull Arena. Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd with 30 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Sturm Graz sit 5th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Red Bull Salzburg's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Levski Sofia 1–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sturm Graz's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Rennes 0–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Red Bull Salzburg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 March 2026, finished Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.7 for Sturm Graz. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 60%.
Safer route: Red Bull Salzburg or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Red Bull Salzburg to win at 1.62 – 65% on our numbers against 62% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Red Bull Salzburg or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Red Bull Salzburg 2–0 Sturm Graz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Red Bull Salzburg65%fair 1.53 · @1.62
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @4.00
Sturm Graz12%fair 8.61 · @4.40
2.75Expected goals
2.00Red Bull Salzburg xG
0.75Sturm Graz xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–013%
2–110%
1–110%
3–09%
3–16%
From our goals model: Red Bull Salzburg 2.0 – 0.7 Sturm Graz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our pick is Red Bull Salzburg or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
On our numbers Red Bull Salzburg have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sturm Graz 12%.
How many goals will there be in Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our predicted score is Red Bull Salzburg 2–0 Sturm Graz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Red Bull Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
