Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.26 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.26Odds
1
Value bet: Krylia Sovetov to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultKrylia Sovetov to win ✗62% · @1.95
Double chanceKrylia Sovetov or draw ✗82% · @1.26
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.79
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.71
Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel preview and prediction
The match
Krylia Sovetov host Fakel in the Premier League on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 12:00 (WAT) at Solidarnost Samara Arena. Krylia Sovetov are 7th with 18 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Fakel sit 16th on 6 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Krylia Sovetov's last 5: LDDWD Most recently they lost to Baltika 0–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Fakel's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat FC Krasnodar 2–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Krylia Sovetov and 0.8 for Fakel. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%.
Safer route: Krylia Sovetov or draw (82%) at 1.26.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.79.
Value angle: Krylia Sovetov to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Krylia Sovetov or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.26, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Krylia Sovetov 1–0 Fakel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Krylia Sovetov62%fair 1.61 · @1.95
Draw20%fair 5.11 · @3.55
Fakel18%fair 5.46 · @4.05
2.63Expected goals
1.81Krylia Sovetov xG
0.83Fakel xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Krylia Sovetov 1.8 – 0.8 Fakel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Krylia Sovetov to win✗
62%
1.61
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Krylia Sovetov or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.26
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.79
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.28
Half-time result
Krylia Sovetov ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Krylia Sovetov / FT Krylia Sovetov✗
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.71
–
Form
Krylia Sovetov – last 6
LDDWDD
14 Oct
vs Baltika
0–2
L
10 Oct
vs Spartak Moscow
1–1
D
16 Sep
@ Lokomotiv
1–1
D
11 Sep
vs Rodina Moskva
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs FC Krasnodar
2–2
D
2 Sep
@ Baltika
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fakel – last 6
WLWLDL
13 Oct
@ FC Krasnodar
2–0
W
10 Oct
vs Lokomotiv
0–5
L
3 Oct
vs FC Vitebsk
1–0
W
16 Sep
@ Spartak Moscow
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Baltika
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ FC Rostov
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Krylia Sovetov and Fakel.
What is the prediction for Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our pick is Krylia Sovetov or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
On our numbers Krylia Sovetov have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Fakel 18%.
How many goals will there be in Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our predicted score is Krylia Sovetov 1–0 Fakel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
