Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.21 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.21Odds
2
Value bet: Lokomotiv to win @ 2.54 – our chance 45% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLokomotiv to win ✓45% · @2.54
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.74
Fakel vs Lokomotiv preview and prediction
The match
Lokomotiv travel to Fakel Stadium in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October (13:15 WAT) to face Fakel. Fakel are 16th with 6 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Lokomotiv sit 15th on 11 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Fakel's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat FC Vitebsk 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Lokomotiv's last 5: WDLWD Most recently they beat FC Orenburg 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Fakel and 1.3 for Lokomotiv. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fakel 33%, draw 22%, Lokomotiv 45%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.86.
Value angle: Lokomotiv to win at 2.54 – 45% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.21. Predicted score: Fakel 1–1 Lokomotiv. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fakel33%fair 3.04 · @2.93
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.26
Lokomotiv45%fair 2.24 · @2.54
2.27Expected goals
1.02Fakel xG
1.26Lokomotiv xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Fakel 1.0 – 1.3 Lokomotiv expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv to win✓
45%
2.24
2.54 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.86
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.34
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.21
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv / FT Lokomotiv✓
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.74
–
Form
Fakel – last 6
WLDLDL
3 Oct
vs FC Vitebsk
1–0
W
16 Sep
@ Spartak Moscow
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Baltika
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ FC Rostov
1–3
L
1 Sep
vs FC Krasnodar
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Zenit
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lokomotiv – last 6
WDLWDL
3 Oct
vs FC Orenburg
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Krylia Sovetov
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Zenit
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Baltika
1–0
W
1 Sep
@ Akron
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Dynamo
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fakel and Lokomotiv.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Fakel vs Lokomotiv?
On our numbers Fakel have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lokomotiv 45%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Lokomotiv?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Lokomotiv?
Our predicted score is Fakel 1–1 Lokomotiv, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Lokomotiv?
Fakel vs Lokomotiv (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:15 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
