Value bet: Baltika to win @ 2.86 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBaltika to win ✗40% · @2.86
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.37
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.23
Akhmat vs Baltika preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Akhmat take on Baltika on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Akhmat-Arena. Akhmat are 12th with 14 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Baltika sit 9th on 17 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Akhmat's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Akron 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Baltika's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Zenit 2–3 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 April 2026, finished Akhmat 1–1 Baltika. Across their last 2 meetings Akhmat have won 0, Baltika 0, with 2 draws and 3.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Akhmat and 1.4 for Baltika. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Akhmat 35%, draw 24%, Baltika 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.86.
Value angle: Baltika to win at 2.86 – 40% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.21. Predicted score: Akhmat 1–1 Baltika. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Akhmat35%fair 2.84 · @2.62
Draw24%fair 4.08 · @3.22
Baltika40%fair 2.48 · @2.86
2.65Expected goals
1.27Akhmat xG
1.38Baltika xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Akhmat 1.3 – 1.4 Baltika expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Akhmat vs Baltika?
On our numbers Akhmat have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Baltika 40%.
How many goals will there be in Akhmat vs Baltika?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Akhmat vs Baltika?
Our predicted score is Akhmat 1–1 Baltika, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Akhmat vs Baltika?
Akhmat vs Baltika (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Akhmat-Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
