Value bet: Baltika to win @ 3.82 – our chance 34% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpartak Moscow to win ✓45% · @2.03
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.78
Baltika vs Spartak Moscow preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Baltika take on Spartak Moscow on Sunday 16 August, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Rostec Arena. Baltika are 9th with 17 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Spartak Moscow sit 3rd on 29 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Baltika's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Krylia Sovetov 2–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Spartak Moscow's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to FC Krasnodar 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Baltika and 1.5 for Spartak Moscow. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Baltika 34%, draw 21%, Spartak Moscow 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.86.
Value angle: Baltika to win at 3.82 – 34% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Baltika 1–1 Spartak Moscow. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Baltika34%fair 2.96 · @3.82
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.48
Spartak Moscow45%fair 2.21 · @2.03
2.65Expected goals
1.20Baltika xG
1.45Spartak Moscow xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Baltika 1.2 – 1.5 Spartak Moscow expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spartak Moscow to win✓
45%
2.21
2.03
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.33 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.86
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spartak Moscow / FT Spartak Moscow✗
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.78
–
Form
Baltika – last 6
WLWLDW
8 Aug
@ Krylia Sovetov
2–0
W
5 Aug
@ Zenit
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Dynamo
2–1
W
24 Jul
@ CSKA Moscow
1–2
L
19 Jul
@ FC Krasnodar
1–1
D
26 Jun
@ Akron
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Spartak Moscow – last 6
LWWWDL
9 Aug
vs FC Krasnodar
1–2
L
5 Aug
vs FC Orenburg
5–1
W
2 Aug
@ Akhmat
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs Rodina Moskva
3–0
W
18 Jul
@ Zenit
1–1
D
11 Jul
@ Lokomotiv
0–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Baltika and Spartak Moscow.
What is the prediction for Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
On our numbers Baltika have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Spartak Moscow 45%.
How many goals will there be in Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Our predicted score is Baltika 1–1 Spartak Moscow, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Baltika vs Spartak Moscow (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Rostec Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
