Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.19 – our chance 55% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Krasnodar to win ✓68% · @1.33
Double chanceFC Krasnodar or draw ✓84% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.19
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.52
FC Krasnodar vs Fakel preview and prediction
The match
Fakel travel to Ozon Arena in the Premier League on Sunday 2 August (16:15 WAT) to face FC Krasnodar. FC Krasnodar are 4th with 26 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Fakel sit 16th on 6 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FC Krasnodar's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Rubin 3–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Fakel's last 5: LLDWD Most recently they lost to Dinamo Makhachkala 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
FC Krasnodar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.2 for FC Krasnodar and 0.9 for Fakel. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Krasnodar 68%, draw 16%, Fakel 16%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.19.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.19 – 55% on our numbers against 46% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: FC Krasnodar 2–0 Fakel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Krasnodar68%fair 1.48 · @1.33
Draw16%fair 6.18 · @5.30
Fakel16%fair 6.22 · @9.90
3.15Expected goals
2.21FC Krasnodar xG
0.94Fakel xG
55%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: FC Krasnodar 2.2 – 0.9 Fakel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Krasnodar to win✓
68%
1.48
1.33
Double chance
FC Krasnodar or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
2.19 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.35
Half-time result
FC Krasnodar ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Krasnodar / FT FC Krasnodar✓
43%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.52
–
Form
FC Krasnodar – last 6
WDDWWL
26 Jul
@ Rubin
3–1
W
19 Jul
vs Baltika
1–1
D
11 Jul
vs FC Rostov
3–3
D
25 Jun
vs PSK Dinskaya
5–1
W
17 May
vs FC Orenburg
3–0
W
11 May
@ Dynamo
1–2
L
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Fakel – last 6
LLDWDD
25 Jul
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
1–2
L
15 Jul
@ FC Rostov
1–2
L
11 Jul
@ Akron
1–1
D
7 Jul
vs FC Rostov
3–1
W
8 May
vs Ska-khabarovsk
0–0
D
27 Apr
@ Torpedo Moskva
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Krasnodar and Fakel.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win FC Krasnodar vs Fakel?
On our numbers FC Krasnodar have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Fakel 16%.
How many goals will there be in FC Krasnodar vs Fakel?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Krasnodar vs Fakel?
Our predicted score is FC Krasnodar 2–0 Fakel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is FC Krasnodar vs Fakel?
FC Krasnodar vs Fakel (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Ozon Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
