Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Spartak Moscow take on Rodina Moskva on Saturday 25 July, kicking off at 18:45 (WAT) at Lukoil Arena. Spartak Moscow are 3rd with 29 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Rodina Moskva sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Spartak Moscow's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Zenit 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rodina Moskva's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Akron 0–5 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.4 for Spartak Moscow and 0.9 for Rodina Moskva. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 66% and both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Spartak Moscow 71%, draw 15%, Rodina Moskva 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Spartak Moscow to win – a 71% chance at odds of 1.29. Predicted score: Spartak Moscow 2–0 Rodina Moskva. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spartak Moscow71%fair 1.40 · @1.29
Draw15%fair 6.57 · @6.20
Rodina Moskva14%fair 7.40 · @10.25
3.38Expected goals
2.44Spartak Moscow xG
0.94Rodina Moskva xG
56%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–08%
3–08%
1–18%
3–18%
From our goals model: Spartak Moscow 2.4 – 0.9 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spartak Moscow to win✓
71%
1.40
1.29
Double chance
Spartak Moscow or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.08
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.41
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.74
Half-time result
Spartak Moscow ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spartak Moscow / FT Spartak Moscow✓
47%
2.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.88
–
Form
Spartak Moscow – last 6
DLDWWD
18 Jul
@ Zenit
1–1
D
11 Jul
@ Lokomotiv
0–2
L
8 Jul
vs Rubin
0–0
D
4 Jul
vs Krylia Sovetov
3–2
W
2 Jul
vs Spartak Kostroma
1–0
W
17 May
@ Dinamo Makhachkala
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Rodina Moskva – last 6
LDWLWW
2 Jul
vs Akron
0–5
L
27 Jun
@ Lokomotiv
0–0
D
8 May
vs Chelyabinsk
2–0
W
22 Apr
@ Rotor Volgograd
0–2
L
13 Apr
@ Fakel
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ FK Sokol Saratov
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spartak Moscow and Rodina Moskva.
What is the prediction for Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
Our pick is Spartak Moscow to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
On our numbers Spartak Moscow have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Rodina Moskva 14%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
Our predicted score is Spartak Moscow 2–0 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Lukoil Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
