Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.41 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.41Odds
1
Value bet: Aurora to win @ 3.72 – our chance 29% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMunicipal to win ✓48% · @2.07
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · fair 1.31
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.35
Aurora vs Municipal preview and prediction
The match
Municipal travel to Estadio Guillermo Slowing in the Liga Nacional on Thursday 10 September (22:00 WAT) to face Aurora. Aurora are 11th with 20 points from 22 games (in the bottom three), while Municipal sit 2nd on 38 points (in the top four). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Aurora's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Antigua GFC 1–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Municipal's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Deportivo San Pedro 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 March 2026, finished Municipal 4–1 Aurora.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.9 for Aurora and 1.3 for Municipal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aurora 29%, draw 24%, Municipal 48%.
Value angle: Aurora to win at 3.72 – 29% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.41. Predicted score: Aurora 1–1 Municipal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aurora29%fair 3.50 · @3.72
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @2.95
Municipal48%fair 2.09 · @2.07
2.29Expected goals
0.95Aurora xG
1.34Municipal xG
46%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Aurora 0.9 – 1.3 Municipal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.41.
Who will win Aurora vs Municipal?
On our numbers Aurora have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Municipal 48%.
How many goals will there be in Aurora vs Municipal?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aurora vs Municipal?
Our predicted score is Aurora 1–1 Municipal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Aurora vs Municipal?
Aurora vs Municipal (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 10 September 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guillermo Slowing.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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