Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise prediction & analysis
61%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnion St. Gilloise to win ✓48% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.70
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise preview and prediction
The match
Union St. Gilloise travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi in the Jupiler Pro League on Saturday 5 September (15:00 WAT) to face Charleroi. Charleroi are 4th with 27 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Union St. Gilloise sit 1st on 29 points (top of the table). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Charleroi's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Kortrijk 3–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Union St. Gilloise's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat St. Truiden 3–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Charleroi arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.2 for Charleroi and 1.6 for Union St. Gilloise. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Charleroi 30%, draw 22%, Union St. Gilloise 48%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Charleroi 1–1 Union St. Gilloise. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Charleroi30%fair 3.28 · @3.10
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.30
Union St. Gilloise48%fair 2.09 · @2.15
2.88Expected goals
1.24Charleroi xG
1.64Union St. Gilloise xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Charleroi 1.2 – 1.6 Union St. Gilloise expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union St. Gilloise to win✓
48%
2.09
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.73 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union St. Gilloise / FT Union St. Gilloise✗
28%
3.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.70
–
Form
Charleroi – last 6
WWWWLW
29 Aug
@ Kortrijk
3–1
W
22 Aug
vs KV Mechelen
2–0
W
16 Aug
@ Lommel United
1–0
W
9 Aug
vs OH Leuven
3–1
W
1 Aug
vs Rayo Vallecano
2–3
L
25 Jul
vs Seraing United
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Union St. Gilloise – last 6
WWDDWD
2 Sep
@ St. Truiden
3–0
W
30 Aug
vs Anderlecht
3–0
W
15 Aug
vs Zulte Waregem
0–0
D
11 Aug
@ BodoGlimt
2–2
D
8 Aug
@ KVC Westerlo
5–1
W
4 Aug
vs BodoGlimt
3–3
D
2.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise.
What is the prediction for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
On our numbers Charleroi have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Union St. Gilloise 48%.
How many goals will there be in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our predicted score is Charleroi 1–1 Union St. Gilloise, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise (Jupiler Pro League) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
