First League · Montenegro · Stadion TopolicaMornar vs Jezero prediction & analysis
Mornar to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mornar 1.7 – 0.5 Jezero expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mornar are clear favourites at home with a 69% chance of winning, against 10% for Jezero.
Mornar have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 per game. Jezero have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.7 for Mornar, 0.5 for Jezero). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 2–0 (16%), 0–0 (11%).
In their last 4 meetings, Mornar have won 3, Jezero have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Mornar to win at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is better than our fair price of 1.45, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mornar to win ✗ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.50 |
| Double chance | Mornar or draw ✓ | 90% | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.62 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 82% | 1.23 | – |
| Half-time result | Mornar ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.15 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mornar / FT Mornar ✗ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 19% | 5.29 | – |
Form
Mornar – last 6
| 2 Oct | @ Mladost DG | 5–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Dečić | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs Otrant-Olympic | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Sep | @ Sutjeska | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Sep | vs Bokelj | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Petrovac | 1–1 | D |
Jezero – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Otrant-Olympic | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Bokelj | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Sep | @ Buducnost Podgorica | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Arsenal Tivat | 5–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Dečić | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Sutjeska | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 2 Aug 2026 | Jezero v Mornar | 0–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | Jezero v Mornar | 0–2 |
| 6 May 2026 | Jezero v Mornar | 1–2 |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Mornar v Jezero | 1–0 |
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Otrant-Olympic | 15 | +9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Buducnost Podgorica | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 3 |  Mornar | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 |  Sutjeska | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Dečić | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Bokelj | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 |  Petrovac | 14 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Jezero | 15 | -5 | 18 |
| 9 |  Mladost DG | 15 | -14 | 12 |
| 10 |  Arsenal Tivat | 14 | -10 | 9 |
More First League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mornar vs Jezero?
Our pick is Mornar to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Mornar vs Jezero?
On our numbers Mornar have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Jezero 10%.
How many goals will there be in Mornar vs Jezero?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is Mornar vs Jezero?
Mornar vs Jezero (First League) kicks off on Thursday 8 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Topolica.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.