Value bet: Pogoń Siedlce to win @ 2.70 – our chance 46% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPogoń Siedlce to win ✗46% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce preview and prediction
The match
The I Liga sees Lechia Gdansk take on Pogoń Siedlce on Friday 21 August, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Polsat Plus Arena. Lechia Gdansk are 4th with 22 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Pogoń Siedlce sit 10th on 19 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lechia Gdansk's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Ruch Chorzów 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Pogoń Siedlce's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Polonia Warszawa 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Pogoń Siedlce arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Lechia Gdansk and 1.5 for Pogoń Siedlce. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Pogoń Siedlce to win at 2.70 – 46% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Lechia Gdansk 1–1 Pogoń Siedlce. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lechia Gdansk34%fair 2.97 · @2.30
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.40
Pogoń Siedlce46%fair 2.19 · @2.70
2.70Expected goals
1.22Lechia Gdansk xG
1.48Pogoń Siedlce xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Lechia Gdansk 1.2 – 1.5 Pogoń Siedlce expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pogoń Siedlce to win✗
46%
2.19
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pogoń Siedlce / FT Pogoń Siedlce✗
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.06
–
Form
Lechia Gdansk – last 6
LDLLLL
14 Aug
@ Ruch Chorzów
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ Podbeskidzie
2–2
D
31 Jul
vs Warta Poznań
0–3
L
25 Jul
vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0–3
L
4 Jul
vs Olimpia Grudziądz
1–3
L
27 Jun
vs Petrolul Ploiesti
0–5
L
0.5Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Pogoń Siedlce – last 6
WDLDWD
15 Aug
vs Polonia Warszawa
1–0
W
7 Aug
@ Polonia Bytom
2–2
D
1 Aug
vs Nieciecza
1–2
L
25 Jul
vs ŁKS Łódź
1–1
D
18 Jul
@ Radomiak Radom
2–1
W
11 Jul
@ Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lechia Gdansk and Pogoń Siedlce.
What is the prediction for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce?
On our numbers Lechia Gdansk have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Pogoń Siedlce 46%.
How many goals will there be in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce?
Our predicted score is Lechia Gdansk 1–1 Pogoń Siedlce, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce?
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce (I Liga) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Polsat Plus Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
