Value bet: Nieciecza to win @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNieciecza to win ✓50% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.09
Pogoń Siedlce vs Nieciecza preview and prediction
The match
Nieciecza travel to Stadion ROSRRiT in the I Liga on Saturday 1 August (14:30 WAT) to face Pogoń Siedlce. Pogoń Siedlce are 10th with 19 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Nieciecza sit 6th on 22 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Pogoń Siedlce's last 5: DWDLL Most recently they drew with ŁKS Łódź 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Nieciecza's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Ruch Chorzów 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nieciecza arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.8 for Pogoń Siedlce and 1.2 for Nieciecza. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Value angle: Nieciecza to win at 2.15 – 50% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Pogoń Siedlce 1–1 Nieciecza. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pogoń Siedlce28%fair 3.61 · @3.10
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.00
Nieciecza50%fair 2.01 · @2.15
2.00Expected goals
0.79Pogoń Siedlce xG
1.21Nieciecza xG
53%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–014%
1–113%
1–011%
0–210%
1–28%
From our goals model: Pogoń Siedlce 0.8 – 1.2 Nieciecza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nieciecza to win✓
50%
2.01
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nieciecza / FT Nieciecza✗
27%
3.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.09
–
Form
Pogoń Siedlce – last 6
DWDLLL
25 Jul
vs ŁKS Łódź
1–1
D
18 Jul
@ Radomiak Radom
2–1
W
11 Jul
@ Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2–2
D
4 Jul
@ Jagiellonia
1–4
L
27 Jun
vs Unia Skierniewice
0–3
L
24 May
@ Wisla Krakow
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Nieciecza – last 6
WLDWWW
26 Jul
vs Ruch Chorzów
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Busko-Zdroj
1–6
L
18 Jul
@ Podbeskidzie
1–1
D
17 Jul
@ Korona Kielce
2–0
W
11 Jul
@ Sandecja Nowy Sącz
2–1
W
4 Jul
vs Resovia Rzeszów
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pogoń Siedlce and Nieciecza.
What is the prediction for Pogoń Siedlce vs Nieciecza?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Pogoń Siedlce vs Nieciecza?
On our numbers Pogoń Siedlce have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nieciecza 50%.
How many goals will there be in Pogoń Siedlce vs Nieciecza?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pogoń Siedlce vs Nieciecza?
Our predicted score is Pogoń Siedlce 1–1 Nieciecza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Pogoń Siedlce vs Nieciecza?
Pogoń Siedlce vs Nieciecza (I Liga) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion ROSRRiT.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
