Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMaribor to win ✗48% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.77
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor preview and prediction
The match
Olimpija Ljubljana host Maribor in the 1. SNL on Saturday 15 August, with kick-off at 19:15 (WAT) at Stadion Stozice. Olimpija Ljubljana are 4th with 23 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Maribor sit 2nd on 24 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Olimpija Ljubljana's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Celje 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Maribor's last 5: WDWDD Most recently they beat Koper 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Maribor arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 8 March 2026, finished Olimpija Ljubljana 0–0 Maribor.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for Olimpija Ljubljana and 1.2 for Maribor. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 56% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Olimpija Ljubljana 31%, draw 21%, Maribor 48%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.35, above our fair price of 1.31, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Olimpija Ljubljana 0–1 Maribor. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Olimpija Ljubljana31%fair 3.24 · @3.15
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.40
Maribor48%fair 2.07 · @2.08
2.12Expected goals
0.89Olimpija Ljubljana xG
1.23Maribor xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Olimpija Ljubljana 0.9 – 1.2 Maribor expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor?
On our numbers Olimpija Ljubljana have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Maribor 48%.
How many goals will there be in Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor?
Our predicted score is Olimpija Ljubljana 0–1 Maribor, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor?
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor (1. SNL) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Stozice.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
