Premier League · England · Stamford BridgeChelsea vs Manchester United prediction & analysis
Chelsea or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
Value bet: Chelsea to win @ 1.95 – our chance 64% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Chelsea 2.3 – 1.1 Manchester United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Chelsea are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 17% for Manchester United.
Chelsea have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. Manchester United have 3 points from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), averaging 0.7 scored and 2.0 conceded. Chelsea come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.4 goals (2.3 for Chelsea, 1.1 for Manchester United). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
Our pick is Chelsea or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.29 is better than our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Chelsea to win at 1.95 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Chelsea to win ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Chelsea or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.29 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.50 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Half-time result | Chelsea ahead at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Chelsea / FT Chelsea ✗ | 42% | 2.37 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.35 | – |
Form
Chelsea – last 6
| 28 Oct | @ Liverpool | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Oct | vs Tottenham | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Everton | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Bournemouth | 5–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | @ Brentford | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Hull City | 2–2 | D |
Manchester United – last 6
| 25 Oct | vs Bournemouth | 0–3 | L |
| 21 Oct | @ Como | 1–4 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Leeds | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | @ Atletico Madrid | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Tottenham | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Fulham | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chelsea and Manchester United.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | -14 | 7 |
More Premier League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Our pick is Chelsea or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
On our numbers Chelsea have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Manchester United 17%.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Manchester United?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
When is Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Chelsea vs Manchester United (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Stamford Bridge.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.