Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
1
Value bet: Everton to win @ 3.10 – our chance 34% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultChelsea to win ✓45% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.55
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗66% · fair 1.51
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.42
Everton vs Chelsea preview and prediction
The match
Everton host Chelsea in the Premier League on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 12:30 (WAT) at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Everton are 6th with 16 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Chelsea sit 5th on 16 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Everton's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with Hull City 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Chelsea's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Bournemouth 5–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.6 for Everton and 1.8 for Chelsea. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Everton 34%, draw 21%, Chelsea 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Everton to win at 3.10 – 34% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Everton 1–1 Chelsea. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Everton34%fair 2.92 · @3.10
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.50
Chelsea45%fair 2.21 · @2.10
3.42Expected goals
1.58Everton xG
1.84Chelsea xG
63%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–16%
0–26%
From our goals model: Everton 1.6 – 1.8 Chelsea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chelsea to win✓
45%
2.21
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.59
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
37%
2.73
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chelsea / FT Chelsea✗
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.42
–
Form
Everton – last 6
DWWDDD
11 Oct
@ Hull City
2–2
D
19 Sep
vs Ipswich
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Wolves
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Tottenham
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Manchester United
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Bournemouth
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Chelsea – last 6
WLDWLW
10 Oct
vs Bournemouth
5–1
W
18 Sep
@ Brentford
0–3
L
12 Sep
vs Hull City
2–2
D
9 Sep
vs Leeds
6–3
W
6 Sep
@ Arsenal
1–2
L
30 Aug
vs Brighton
4–3
W
3.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Everton and Chelsea.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?
On our numbers Everton have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chelsea 45%.
How many goals will there be in Everton vs Chelsea?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Chelsea?
Our predicted score is Everton 1–1 Chelsea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Everton vs Chelsea?
Everton vs Chelsea (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
