Premier League · England · St. James' ParkNewcastle vs Aston Villa prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Newcastle 1.8 – 1.6 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Newcastle hold the edge on home soil with a 44% chance of winning, against 36% for Aston Villa.
Newcastle have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 per game. Aston Villa have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 3.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 3.3 goals (1.8 for Newcastle, 1.6 for Aston Villa). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.55 is close to our fair price of 1.52.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Newcastle to win ✗ | 44% | 2.28 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 85% | 1.18 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 37% | 2.69 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Newcastle / FT Newcastle ✗ | 26% | 3.87 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.47 | – |
Form
Newcastle – last 6
| 12 Oct | @ Coventry | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Hull City | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | @ Leeds | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Sep | @ Millwall | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Tottenham | 2–0 | W |
Aston Villa – last 6
| 14 Oct | vs Fenerbahçe | 6–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Brentford | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Oct | @ Sevilla | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Tottenham | 3–2 | W |
| 16 Sep | @ Coventry | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Nottingham Forest | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newcastle and Aston Villa.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | -14 | 7 |
More Premier League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
On our numbers Newcastle have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Aston Villa 36%.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
When is Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle vs Aston Villa (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at St. James' Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.