Manchester United vs Manchester City preview and prediction
The match
Manchester City travel to Old Trafford in the Premier League on Sunday 13 September (16:30 WAT) to face Manchester United. Manchester United are 18th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Manchester City sit 3rd on 21 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Manchester United's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Sabah FA 4–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Manchester City's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat FC Porto 2–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Manchester City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.7 for Manchester United and 2.0 for Manchester City. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 71% and both teams to score at 69%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Manchester United 33%, draw 19%, Manchester City 48%.
Both teams to score: yes (69%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 69% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Manchester United 1–2 Manchester City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Manchester United33%fair 3.03 · @3.10
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @3.70
Manchester City48%fair 2.10 · @2.05
3.67Expected goals
1.65Manchester United xG
2.02Manchester City xG
69%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–18%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
0–25%
From our goals model: Manchester United 1.7 – 2.0 Manchester City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Manchester City to win✓
48%
2.10
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
69%
1.45
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Manchester City ahead at half-time✗
37%
2.70
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Manchester City / FT Manchester City✗
29%
3.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.68
–
Form
Manchester United – last 6
WDWLLD
10 Sep
vs Sabah FA
4–0
W
6 Sep
@ Everton
2–2
D
30 Aug
vs Ipswich
5–2
W
22 Aug
@ Hull City
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs AC Milan
2–4
L
12 Aug
@ Leeds
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Manchester City – last 6
WWWWLW
8 Sep
@ FC Porto
2–0
W
5 Sep
vs Coventry
1–0
W
28 Aug
@ Crystal Palace
4–1
W
23 Aug
vs Bournemouth
2–1
W
16 Aug
@ Arsenal
0–3
L
9 Aug
vs Atletico Madrid
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Manchester United and Manchester City.
What is the prediction for Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Manchester United vs Manchester City?
On our numbers Manchester United have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Manchester City 48%.
How many goals will there be in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Our predicted score is Manchester United 1–2 Manchester City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Manchester United vs Manchester City (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Old Trafford.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
