Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Aston Villa to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAston Villa to win ✗62% · @1.85
Double chanceAston Villa or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗20% · fair 5.11
Hull City vs Aston Villa preview and prediction
The match
Aston Villa travel to MKM Stadium in the Premier League on Saturday 5 September (17:30 WAT) to face Hull City. Hull City are 13th with 11 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Aston Villa sit 10th on 13 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Hull City's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Coventry 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aston Villa's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Arsenal 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Hull City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.6 for Hull City and 1.4 for Aston Villa. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Hull City 17%, draw 21%, Aston Villa 62%.
Safer route: Aston Villa or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Aston Villa to win at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Aston Villa or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Hull City 0–1 Aston Villa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hull City17%fair 5.95 · @4.00
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.40
Aston Villa62%fair 1.62 · @1.85
2.00Expected goals
0.55Hull City xG
1.45Aston Villa xG
50%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–120%
0–214%
0–014%
1–111%
1–28%
1–08%
From our goals model: Hull City 0.6 – 1.4 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✗
62%
1.62
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✗
36%
2.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
20%
5.11
–
Form
Hull City – last 6
WDWDLD
29 Aug
@ Coventry
1–0
W
25 Aug
@ Stoke City
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Manchester United
2–0
W
15 Aug
vs Nice
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Eintracht Frankfurt
0–2
L
1 Aug
@ Kasımpaşa
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Aston Villa – last 6
LLLLLW
31 Aug
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
23 Aug
@ Brighton
0–4
L
15 Aug
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
1–2
L
12 Aug
@ Paris Saint Germain
1–2
L
7 Aug
@ Bayern München
1–2
L
4 Aug
@ BG Pathum United
3–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hull City and Aston Villa.
What is the prediction for Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Our pick is Aston Villa or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Hull City vs Aston Villa?
On our numbers Hull City have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Aston Villa 62%.
How many goals will there be in Hull City vs Aston Villa?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Our predicted score is Hull City 0–1 Aston Villa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Hull City vs Aston Villa (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at MKM Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
