Value bet: Aston Villa to win @ 3.20 – our chance 40% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAston Villa to win ✗40% · @3.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Brighton vs Aston Villa preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Brighton take on Aston Villa on Sunday 23 August, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at American Express Stadium. Brighton are 2nd with 22 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Aston Villa sit 10th on 13 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Brighton's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Tromso 0–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aston Villa's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Brighton arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Brighton 37%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 40%.
Value angle: Aston Villa to win at 3.20 – 40% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Either team to win – a 77% chance at odds of 1.30. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Brighton37%fair 2.69 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.40
Aston Villa40%fair 2.51 · @3.20
Most likely scores
Goal projections appear once goal data is in.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✗
40%
2.51
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Form
Brighton – last 6
DWWWLL
20 Aug
@ Tromso
0–0
D
15 Aug
vs Bologna
1–0
W
8 Aug
vs AS Roma
3–0
W
1 Aug
vs Strasbourg
4–3
W
24 May
vs Manchester United
0–3
L
17 May
@ Leeds
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Aston Villa – last 6
LLLWLL
15 Aug
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
1–2
L
12 Aug
@ Paris Saint Germain
1–2
L
7 Aug
@ Bayern München
1–2
L
4 Aug
@ BG Pathum United
3–1
W
28 Jul
vs Real Sociedad
2–4
L
25 Jul
@ FC Porto
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Brighton and Aston Villa.
What is the prediction for Brighton vs Aston Villa?
Our pick is Either team to win with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Brighton vs Aston Villa?
On our numbers Brighton have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Aston Villa 40%.
When is Brighton vs Aston Villa?
Brighton vs Aston Villa (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at American Express Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
