Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Finland W to win @ 1.80 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFinland W to win ✓65% · @1.80
Double chanceFinland W or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26
Finland W vs Serbia W preview and prediction
The match
Serbia W travel to Tammelan Stadion in the World Cup Women Qualification Europe on Friday 9 October (16:30 WAT) to face Finland W.
Form guide
Finland W's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Portugal W 3–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Serbia W's last 4: LLLL Most recently they lost to Denmark W 1–4 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Finland W arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.4 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.3 for Finland W and 1.0 for Serbia W. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Finland W 65%, draw 21%, Serbia W 14%.
Safer route: Finland W or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Finland W to win at 1.80 – 65% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Finland W or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Finland W 2–1 Serbia W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Finland W65%fair 1.55 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.10
Serbia W14%fair 7.14 · @4.00
3.33Expected goals
2.30Finland W xG
1.03Serbia W xG
58%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–010%
1–18%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Finland W 2.3 – 1.0 Serbia W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Finland W to win✓
65%
1.55
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Finland W or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Finland W ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Finland W / FT Finland W✓
43%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.26
–
Form
Finland W – last 5
WWWWL
9 Jun
vs Portugal W
3–1
W
5 Jun
@ Slovakia W
4–0
W
14 Apr
vs Slovakia W
4–2
W
7 Mar
vs Latvia W
3–1
W
3 Mar
@ Portugal W
0–2
L
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Serbia W – last 4
LLLL
9 Jun
vs Denmark W
1–4
L
5 Jun
@ Italy W
0–3
L
14 Apr
vs Italy W
0–6
L
3 Mar
@ Denmark W
1–3
L
0.5Scored / game
4.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Finland W and Serbia W.
Our pick is Finland W or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Finland W vs Serbia W?
On our numbers Finland W have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Serbia W 14%.
How many goals will there be in Finland W vs Serbia W?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finland W vs Serbia W?
Our predicted score is Finland W 2–1 Serbia W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Finland W vs Serbia W?
Finland W vs Serbia W (World Cup Women Qualification Europe) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Tammelan Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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