Championship · Scotland · Ochilview ParkStenhousemuir vs Arbroath prediction & analysis
Stenhousemuir or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Stenhousemuir to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Stenhousemuir 1.4 – 0.6 Arbroath expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Stenhousemuir hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 18% for Arbroath.
Stenhousemuir have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.7 per game. Arbroath have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded. Stenhousemuir come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.4 for Stenhousemuir, 0.6 for Arbroath). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 0–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%).
Our pick is Stenhousemuir or draw at a 82% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.22. For a bigger price, Stenhousemuir to win at 1.91 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Stenhousemuir to win ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Stenhousemuir or draw ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.94 | 2.00 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.68 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.06 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Stenhousemuir / FT Stenhousemuir ✓ | 33% | 3.00 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 19% | 5.31 | – |
Form
Stenhousemuir – last 6
| 15 Sep | vs Partick | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Heart Of Midlothian | 0–3 | L |
| 4 Sep | @ Livingston | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Inverness CT | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | vs Motherwell | 0–0 | D |
Arbroath – last 6
| 12 Sep | @ Raith Rovers | 0–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Dunfermline | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Livingston | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Morton | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Inverness CT | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Aug | @ Ayr Utd | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stenhousemuir and Arbroath.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Partick | 14 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 14 | +11 | 25 |
| 3 |  Dunfermline | 14 | +8 | 25 |
| 4 |  Stenhousemuir | 14 | 0 | 23 |
| 5 |  Livingston | 14 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Inverness CT | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ayr Utd | 13 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 14 | -12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Morton | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 |  Queen's Park | 14 | -15 | 7 |
More Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath?
Our pick is Stenhousemuir or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath?
On our numbers Stenhousemuir have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Arbroath 18%.
How many goals will there be in Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath?
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Ochilview Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.