Championship · Scotland · Cappielow ParkMorton vs Dunfermline prediction & analysis
Dunfermline or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Dunfermline to win @ 1.73 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Morton 0.5 – 1.5 Dunfermline expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Dunfermline travel as clear favourites – 63% to win, against 13% for Morton.
Morton have taken 1 points from their last 6 matches (0W 1D 5L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.0 per game. Dunfermline have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Dunfermline come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (0.5 for Morton, 1.5 for Dunfermline). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (19%), 0–2 (15%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Morton have won 1, Dunfermline have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Dunfermline or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Dunfermline to win at 1.73 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Dunfermline to win ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Double chance | Dunfermline or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.16 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.63 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.53 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Dunfermline / FT Dunfermline ✗ | 38% | 2.63 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✓ | 19% | 5.19 | – |
Form
Morton – last 6
| 11 Sep | vs Livingston | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Queen's Park | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Ayr Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Arbroath | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Stenhousemuir | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | vs Partick | 0–1 | L |
Dunfermline – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Arbroath | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | vs Raith Rovers | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Livingston | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | vs Ross County | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs Ayr Utd | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 17 Feb 2026 | Morton v Dunfermline | 2–0 |
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Partick | 14 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 14 | +11 | 25 |
| 3 |  Dunfermline | 14 | +8 | 25 |
| 4 |  Stenhousemuir | 14 | 0 | 23 |
| 5 |  Livingston | 14 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Inverness CT | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ayr Utd | 13 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 14 | -12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Morton | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 |  Queen's Park | 14 | -15 | 7 |
More Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Morton vs Dunfermline?
Our pick is Dunfermline or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Morton vs Dunfermline?
On our numbers Morton have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Dunfermline 63%.
How many goals will there be in Morton vs Dunfermline?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Morton vs Dunfermline?
Morton vs Dunfermline (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Cappielow Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.