Championship · Scotland · Somerset ParkAyr Utd vs Morton prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ayr Utd 1.6 – 0.7 Morton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ayr Utd hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 20% for Morton.
Ayr Utd have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Morton have 0 points from their last 6 (0W 0D 6L), averaging 0.2 scored and 1.8 conceded. Ayr Utd come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.6 for Ayr Utd, 0.7 for Morton). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (12%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.31.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ayr Utd to win ✗ | 59% | 1.68 | 1.71 |
| Double chance | Ayr Utd or draw ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.31 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.22 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ayr Utd / FT Ayr Utd ✗ | 35% | 2.90 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 16% | 6.39 | – |
Form
Ayr Utd – last 6
| 22 Aug | @ Raith Rovers | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | @ Kilmarnock | 2–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Dunfermline | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | vs Arbroath | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | vs Alloa Athletic | 4–1 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs Edinburgh City | 2–0 | W |
Morton – last 6
| 22 Aug | vs Arbroath | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Stenhousemuir | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | vs Partick | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Jul | vs Inverness CT | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Jul | @ ST Johnstone | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Jul | @ East Fife | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ayr Utd and Morton.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Partick | 14 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 14 | +11 | 25 |
| 3 |  Dunfermline | 14 | +8 | 25 |
| 4 |  Stenhousemuir | 14 | 0 | 23 |
| 5 |  Livingston | 14 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Inverness CT | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ayr Utd | 13 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 14 | -12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Morton | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 |  Queen's Park | 14 | -15 | 7 |
More Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ayr Utd vs Morton?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Morton?
On our numbers Ayr Utd have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Morton 20%.
How many goals will there be in Ayr Utd vs Morton?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Ayr Utd vs Morton?
Ayr Utd vs Morton (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Somerset Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.