Championship · Scotland · Gayfield ParkArbroath vs Livingston prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Arbroath 0.9 – 1.3 Livingston expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Livingston shade it despite being away from home – 50% to win, against 30% for Arbroath.
Arbroath have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.3 per game. Livingston have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. Livingston come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (0.9 for Arbroath, 1.3 for Livingston). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.35 is close to our fair price of 1.34.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Livingston to win ✗ | 50% | 2.01 | 1.98 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 70% | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.93 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.35 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Livingston / FT Livingston ✗ | 27% | 3.70 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 14% | 7.30 | – |
Form
Arbroath – last 6
| 22 Aug | @ Morton | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Inverness CT | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Aug | @ Ayr Utd | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Jul | vs Stirling Albion | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Jul | vs Montrose | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Jul | @ Dundee Utd | 0–3 | L |
Livingston – last 6
| 22 Aug | vs Dunfermline | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Aug | @ Partick | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | vs Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Stenhousemuir | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Jul | vs Forfar Athletic | 8–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs Partick | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arbroath and Livingston.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Partick | 14 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 14 | +11 | 25 |
| 3 |  Dunfermline | 14 | +8 | 25 |
| 4 |  Stenhousemuir | 14 | 0 | 23 |
| 5 |  Livingston | 14 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Inverness CT | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ayr Utd | 13 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 14 | -12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Morton | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 |  Queen's Park | 14 | -15 | 7 |
More Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Arbroath vs Livingston?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Arbroath vs Livingston?
On our numbers Arbroath have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Livingston 50%.
How many goals will there be in Arbroath vs Livingston?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Arbroath vs Livingston?
Arbroath vs Livingston (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Gayfield Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.