Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Falkirk to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFalkirk to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceFalkirk or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.66
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock preview and prediction
The match
The Premiership sees Falkirk take on Kilmarnock on Saturday 24 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Falkirk Stadium. Falkirk are 3rd with 21 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Kilmarnock sit 12th on 9 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Falkirk's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Hibernian 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Kilmarnock's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Motherwell 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Falkirk and 0.9 for Kilmarnock. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Falkirk to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Falkirk or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Falkirk 1–0 Kilmarnock. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Falkirk63%fair 1.58 · @1.85
Draw20%fair 5.04 · @3.50
Kilmarnock17%fair 5.98 · @3.75
2.83Expected goals
1.96Falkirk xG
0.87Kilmarnock xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Falkirk 2.0 – 0.9 Kilmarnock expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Falkirk to win✓
63%
1.58
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Falkirk or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Falkirk ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Falkirk / FT Falkirk✓
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.66
–
Form
Falkirk – last 6
WLDWDL
17 Oct
@ Hibernian
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Dundee
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ ST Johnstone
1–1
D
15 Sep
vs Heart Of Midlothian
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ Dundee Utd
1–1
D
2 Sep
vs Rangers
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Kilmarnock – last 6
WLDWDD
17 Oct
vs Motherwell
3–2
W
10 Oct
@ Rangers
1–3
L
19 Sep
vs Heart Of Midlothian
1–1
D
15 Sep
@ Hibernian
1–0
W
12 Sep
vs Aberdeen
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Aberdeen
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Falkirk and Kilmarnock.
Our pick is Falkirk or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
On our numbers Falkirk have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Kilmarnock 17%.
How many goals will there be in Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
Our predicted score is Falkirk 1–0 Kilmarnock, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock (Premiership) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Falkirk Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
