Value bet: Kilmarnock to win @ 3.15 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultST Johnstone to win ✓39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.93
ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock preview and prediction
The match
ST Johnstone host Kilmarnock in the Premiership on Sunday 2 August, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at McDiarmid Park. ST Johnstone are 7th with 17 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Kilmarnock sit 12th on 9 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
ST Johnstone's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with East Fife 1–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Kilmarnock's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Peterhead 0–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for ST Johnstone and 1.3 for Kilmarnock. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: ST Johnstone 39%, draw 24%, Kilmarnock 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Kilmarnock to win at 3.15 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: ST Johnstone 1–1 Kilmarnock. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ST Johnstone39%fair 2.54 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.35
Kilmarnock37%fair 2.71 · @3.15
2.72Expected goals
1.38ST Johnstone xG
1.33Kilmarnock xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: ST Johnstone 1.4 – 1.3 Kilmarnock expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ST Johnstone to win✓
39%
2.54
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ST Johnstone / FT ST Johnstone✗
22%
4.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.93
–
Form
ST Johnstone – last 6
DLWWWW
25 Jul
vs East Fife
1–1
D
21 Jul
@ Inverness CT
0–1
L
18 Jul
vs Morton
3–0
W
14 Jul
@ Linlithgow Rose
2–0
W
11 Jul
@ Cove Rangers
4–2
W
4 Jul
@ Montrose
3–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Kilmarnock – last 6
DWWDWW
25 Jul
@ Peterhead
0–0
D
21 Jul
vs Hamilton Academical
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Elgin City
1–0
W
14 Jul
vs Raith Rovers
0–0
D
4 Jul
@ Linfield
3–2
W
1 Jul
@ Glentoran
4–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ST Johnstone and Kilmarnock.
What is the prediction for ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
On our numbers ST Johnstone have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Kilmarnock 37%.
How many goals will there be in ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
Our predicted score is ST Johnstone 1–1 Kilmarnock, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock (Premiership) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at McDiarmid Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
