Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Fenix to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFenix to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceFenix or draw ✗86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.31
Uruguay Montevideo vs Fenix preview and prediction
The match
Fenix travel to face Uruguay Montevideo in the Segunda División on Saturday 27 June (17:00 WAT). Uruguay Montevideo are 14th with 22 points from 25 games (in the bottom three), while Fenix sit 11th on 31 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Uruguay Montevideo's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Rentistas 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Fenix's last 5: DDWDD Most recently they drew with Oriental 2–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Fenix arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Uruguay Montevideo 1–1 Fenix.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.7 for Uruguay Montevideo and 1.7 for Fenix. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Fenix to win at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Fenix or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Uruguay Montevideo 0–1 Fenix. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Uruguay Montevideo14%fair 7.39 · @3.75
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.10
Fenix60%fair 1.65 · @1.95
2.36Expected goals
0.68Uruguay Montevideo xG
1.69Fenix xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–213%
1–111%
0–09%
1–29%
0–37%
From our goals model: Uruguay Montevideo 0.7 – 1.7 Fenix expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Uruguay Montevideo vs Fenix?
Our pick is Fenix or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Uruguay Montevideo vs Fenix?
On our numbers Uruguay Montevideo have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fenix 60%.
How many goals will there be in Uruguay Montevideo vs Fenix?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Uruguay Montevideo vs Fenix?
Our predicted score is Uruguay Montevideo 0–1 Fenix, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Uruguay Montevideo vs Fenix?
Uruguay Montevideo vs Fenix (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 27 June 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
