J1 League · Japan · Ajinomoto Stadium

FC Tokyo

WWDWL
2–0
FT

Kashima

DWWLD

FC Tokyo vs Kashima prediction & analysis

62%
Footrivo pick

Both teams to score

Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.56 · Lost ✗

5/10Rating
1.56Odds
2

Value bet: Kashima to win @ 3.24 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultFC Tokyo to win ✓44% · @2.07
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.56
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.35

Win chances

FC Tokyo44%fair 2.29 · @2.07
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.52
Kashima36%fair 2.80 · @3.24
3.19Expected goals
1.69FC Tokyo xG
1.50Kashima xG
62%Both score
59%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%

From our goals model: FC Tokyo 1.7 – 1.5 Kashima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

FC Tokyo hold the edge on home soil with a 44% chance of winning, against 36% for Kashima.

FC Tokyo have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.2 per game. Kashima have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.

We expect around 3.2 goals (1.7 for FC Tokyo, 1.5 for Kashima). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).

In their last 1 meeting, FC Tokyo have won 0, Kashima have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Both teams to score at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.56 is close to our fair price of 1.61. For a bigger price, Kashima to win at 3.24 is our value angle (36% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFC Tokyo to win ✓44%2.292.07
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79%1.261.27
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗62%1.611.56
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80%1.251.17
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗59%1.701.67
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓62%1.611.41
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓38%2.62–
Half-time / full-timeHT FC Tokyo / FT FC Tokyo ✗25%3.93–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.35–

Form

FC Tokyo – last 6

WWDWLW
31 Oct@ Fagiano Okayama4–0W
25 Octvs Mito Hollyhock6–0W
21 Octvs Kashiwa Reysol0–0D
17 Oct@ Tokyo Verdy4–0W
14 Oct@ Mito Hollyhock0–1L
10 Octvs Urawa3–0W
2.8Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Kashima – last 6

DWWLDW
4 Nov@ Buriram United0–0D
31 Octvs Cerezo Osaka4–1W
28 Octvs Pohang Steelers3–0W
24 Octvs Kashiwa Reysol2–3L
21 Oct@ Kyoto Sanga2–2D
17 Octvs V-varen Nagasaki2–0W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

23 May 2026Kashima v FC Tokyo1–0

More J1 League predictions

FT Shimizu S-pulse0 Tokyo Verdy1 382537 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.38 ✗ FT Nagoya Grampus0 Kyoto Sanga2 592021 1Nagoya Grampus to win 59%@1.82 ✗ FT Yokohama F. Marinos1 Fagiano Okayama1 482131 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.22 ✓ FT Avispa Fukuoka1 V-varen Nagasaki1 432235 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.32 ✓ FT Kashiwa Reysol2 Kawasaki Frontale1 451936 GGBoth teams to score 69%@1.40 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC Tokyo vs Kashima?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.56.

Who will win FC Tokyo vs Kashima?

On our numbers FC Tokyo have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Kashima 36%.

How many goals will there be in FC Tokyo vs Kashima?

We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

When is FC Tokyo vs Kashima?

FC Tokyo vs Kashima (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Ajinomoto Stadium.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.