J1 League · Japan · Best Denki Stadium
Avispa Fukuoka
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.32 · Won ✓
Value bet: V-varen Nagasaki to win @ 3.12 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Avispa Fukuoka 1.4 – 1.2 V-varen Nagasaki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Avispa Fukuoka hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 35% for V-varen Nagasaki.
Avispa Fukuoka have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.3 per game. V-varen Nagasaki have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.4 for Avispa Fukuoka, 1.2 for V-varen Nagasaki). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
In their last 2 meetings, Avispa Fukuoka have won 1, V-varen Nagasaki have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 71% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.32 is close to our fair price of 1.40. For a bigger price, V-varen Nagasaki to win at 3.12 is our value angle (35% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Avispa Fukuoka to win ✗ | 43% | 2.33 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.31 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.84 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | 1.32 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.87 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.34 | 1.19 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Avispa Fukuoka / FT Avispa Fukuoka ✗ | 24% | 4.17 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.98 | – |
Form
Avispa Fukuoka – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ JEF United Chiba | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Oct | @ Tokyo Verdy | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Oct | vs Gamba Osaka | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Machida Zelvia | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Oct | @ Sagan Tosu | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Fagiano Okayama | 2–1 | W |
V-varen Nagasaki – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs Tokyo Verdy | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Oct | @ Urawa | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Oct | vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 4–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Kashima | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ JEF United Chiba | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | @ Shimizu S-pulse | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 11 Apr 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka v V-varen Nagasaki | 1–0 |
| 15 Mar 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki v Avispa Fukuoka | 1–0 |
More J1 League predictions
Shimizu S-pulse0
Tokyo Verdy1
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
67%@1.38
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Nagoya Grampus0
Kyoto Sanga2
1Nagoya Grampus to win
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Yokohama F. Marinos1
Fagiano Okayama1
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FC Tokyo2
Kashima0
GGBoth teams to score
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Kashiwa Reysol2
Kawasaki Frontale1
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Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.
Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki?
On our numbers Avispa Fukuoka have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and V-varen Nagasaki 35%.
How many goals will there be in Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Best Denki Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.